Decentralized prediction marketplace Polymarket entered the spotlight during the U.S. presidential race this year, peaking with a $3.2 billion trading volume on election day
Decentralized prediction marketplace Polymarket entered the spotlight during the U.S. presidential race this year, peaking with a $3.2 billion trading volume on election day. Those who used the platform to bet on Donald Trump's win over Kamala Harris got astonishing returns, setting the so-called conventional polling and media predictions wrong.
Among the biggest winners was a French trader, known only as "Théo," who made a staggering bet of $30 million on Trump's victory. He made a profit of over $21.8 million, although he mentioned that he had made bets under other accounts on Polymarket. The trade, he said, was not a matter of political preference but an analytical consideration of polling data and Trump’s past electoral performance. Other big winners included Fredi9999, who netted $15.6 million in profit from his daring bets, and zxgngl, who gained $11 million.
Correspondingly, the platform's prediction markets gave Trump a crystal-clear lead, with $1.3 billion in bets against $827 million for Harris. With Polymarket estimating Trump's probability of winning at 66.7% into late October, it came into strong contrast with the mainstream media’s continuous assessments that the race remained "too close to call" until election day.
This accuracy has sparked discussions about the reliability of prediction markets versus traditional polling methods. Polymarket, which allows users outside the U.S. to bet on real-world events, combines data-driven analysis with public sentiment to create what supporters argue is a more accurate forecasting tool.
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