Did BNB print the same pattern as Ethereum on its charts? Or is it just a coincidence? Should you fill your bags with the biggest crypto exchange's native token? Read more to find out!
After Binance Coin’s (BNB) thunderous pump at the start of 2021, bringing a run of over 1,700% from the start of January to the May highs, there has been relatively no coverage of it. It could be inferred that investors got spooked by regulation claims, or just generally by the fact that BTC was showing weakness and grinding down, which is never a good sign for the altcoin market. However, after the bottom in May, BNB has risen over 190%, with a chart that potentially looks primed for all-time highs. With fundamental catalysts such as the Bruno upgrade coming to Binance Smart Chain, and millions pouring into the chain due to the ongoing meme coin craze, can BNB make the final push? Let’s delve deeper into the charts by first looking at the daily BNB/USDT chart.
BNB/USDT in a 1D Chart
As you can see on the 1-day chart for BNB, there is a fully intact bullish market structure, there are a series of higher highs and higher lows (the blue levels I have outlined) that have not been broken, consequently, we can infer that price will continue to grind up until there is a 1 day close below the most recent higher low at $511. Price is also consolidating on the support level, right under the supply zone. This usually signals accumulation before another drive-up.
ETH/USDT - 1D Chart Comparison
The BNB/USDT daily chart reminds me of Ethereum before its big move to all-time highs. As you can see below on the ETH/USDT chart, there are a few similarities between both the pairs: There was a clear initial rejection on the run-up, followed by a retest/deviation of the previous range, which then ended up with a reclaim of a support level. I have pointed out where I believe BNB potentially could be in the cycle. This would allow for more upside momentum. Although never the same, there are always similarities in the market, and this potentially could be one of them.
BNB/USDT in a Weekly Chart
The BNB weekly also looks good; however, it must flip the supply zone for higher prices. There have been plenty of times where price has wicked above all-time highs just to come back down and trap every breakout longer. If the price flips the supply zone, the first target will be $875. This is due to the fact that it lines up with the 1.382 Fibonacci level. Although the USDT chart is always good to look at, it helps to compare BNB with BTC, as ultimately you do not want to be holding an altcoin that is likely not to outperform BTC. You always want to minimize your risk and maximize your reward, and holding an altcoin that is bullish against Bitcoin helps in this case. Let’s have a look at the BNB/BTC weekly chart.
BNB/BTC in a Weekly Time Frame
BNB/BTC has been on a steady downtrend from BNBs May all-time highs to the mid of October. Price has now broken from this downtrend after the trendline break, this means that BNB/BTC now has a bullish market structure and will look to go higher. You can see that eager bulls emerged after both retests of the trendline, and the support at 0.009835 sats was strongly protected. We want to see the first supply zone flipped before getting too excited as the price is in no man’s land, ranging between support and resistance. And although the lower dips have been bought up, any move that has been attempted through the first supply zone has been sold off. This means that we cannot be particularly bullish on BNB/BTC till it flips this level.
KCS/BNB and FTT/BNB in a Weekly Time Frame
BNB runs on Binance Smart Chain and was introduced as a native token of the biggest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance. Two exchange tokens that are competitors to BNB are FTX (FTT) and KuCoin (KCS). We can compare these tokens together to see which one is going to outperform the rest. As you can see in the FTT/BNB chart, Binance Coin has been outperforming it since February. With FTT/BNB almost falling to new lows, I see no reason for relief, therefore BNB being the more option. KuCoin has outperformed BNB recently after making all-time lows at the beginning of the year. However, it is now at a pivotal resistance point. If the price can flip this level, it is likely that KCS will outperform BNB. Consequently, we can conclude that until this is done, BNB is the better long to go for.
Seasonality
Although this analysis has generally pointed to new highs for BNB, it is entirely dependent on what Bitcoin does. Typically, December is a month where Bitcoin and Ethereum run hand in hand, both averaging around 16% returns. You, therefore, could expect BNB and most of the altcoin market to follow if prices follow the conventional average return mark. However, with BTC currently in a significant downtrend, it is yet to be seen how it will react in December. If prices start to go down, BNB will also follow.
Summarizing Everything Explained Above
BNB is a strong staple of the Binance ecosystem at large, with many use cases and a strong team behind it who have a bright vision. It has been in a constant uptrend since the end of September and has been consolidating on the support level under all-time highs in its USDT pair. It is, therefore, likely for the price to test these all-time highs in the coming weeks. However, the BNB/BTC pairing has been rejected at a supply zone. If it gets flipped then there is only one more zone before new highs. Nonetheless, right now price is in ‘no man’s land’ as it is between support and resistance. Therefore, you cannot assume where it is likely to go next. BNB is likely to continue to outperform its competitors, such as FTX and KCS. FTT is falling to new lows in comparison to BNB, whilst the KCS/BNB pair is at strong resistance. In December, BTC and ETH usually average a 16% return, therefore BNB is likely to follow the same pattern. However, BTC has a bearish price structure, so sellers could easily take control of the market, forcing BNB down with it.
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