November's close of $57,000 was lower than the "worst-case scenario" set out by the popular crypto analyst PlanB, who had predicted BTC would currently be priced at $98,000.
Dreams of a green Christmas for Bitcoin have been dampened after a disappointing monthly close.
The world's biggest cryptocurrency finished November at $57,005 — well short of what many technical analysts had been hoping for.
Tuesday's market activity was punctuated by a sharp rejection from $59,000.
That came after Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell suggested measures designed to stimulate the economy during the coronavirus pandemic may end even earlier than expected.
The central bank's quantitative easing program — which involved creating new dollars and pumping them into the economy — has been a key factor in Bitcoin's rally over the past 18 months.
But even as the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 causes alarm, Powell pointed to high levels of inflation as a bigger cause for concern.
Inflation gauges increases in the prices consumers pay for goods and services — and although the Fed has long had a target of 2% in place, October's reading came in at 6.2%.
The Fed had previously attempted to play down the current spike as "transitory," but Powell has now conceded that inflation may remain overheated until the second half of next year. He added:
"I think it's probably a good time to retire that word."
While too much inflation can greatly diminish the spending power of the cash in your pocket, it has helped elevate demand for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency's fixed supply of 21 million means it has long been regarded as a hedge against inflation — a store of value.
Listen to the CoinMarketRecap podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Google Podcasts
What Now?
December is going to be significant for the global economy and for the markets.
Scientists are now racing to learn more about the Omicron variant. Key questions include whether it is more transmissible than previous strains of COVID, whether it causes more severe illness, and whether it is more resistant to vaccines. It could take weeks to get answers.
U.S. President Joe Biden has described Omicron as a "cause for concern, not a cause for panic" — and stressed that lockdowns are not currently necessary. And while Powell said the variant could bring fresh uncertainty, he doesn't believe its effects on the economy will be "remotely comparable" to the carnage seen in March 2020.
The Fed will update its policies two weeks today — on Dec. 15 — delivering confirmation on whether stimulus will be wound down faster, and potentially hinting on when interest rates may be increased. Both events could prove bearish for the crypto markets and stocks alike.
And this brings us back to Bitcoin, where ever-enthusiastic traders are hoping to emulate the dramatic price surges seen in 2013 and 2017.
November's close of $57,000 was dramatically lower than the "worst-case scenario" set out by the popular crypto analyst PlanB, who had predicted that BTC would currently be priced at $98,000.
This came after his floor model "nailed" the closing prices in August, September and October. On Twitter, he wrote:
"No model is perfect, but this is a big miss and the first in 10 years!"
PlanB went on to openly ponder whether November's tepid performance was an outlier or a black swan — and said he planned to give his floor model "one more month" to find out.
The analysis stressed that this shouldn't be confused with his popular stock-to-flow model, which predicts that BTC's average price should stand at about $100,000 during this halving cycle.
Although endless analysts on Crypto Twitter are sharing charts that suggest Bitcoin's on-chain metrics are healthy and ripe for a bullish breakout, BTC's failure to even break through $60,000 — let alone surge to new all-time highs of $69,000 — should cause concern.
And the fact that PlanB himself recently launched a Twitter poll asking followers whether $69,000 was the top for this halving cycle suggests his conviction may be waning slightly, too.
Brent Donnelly of Spectra Markets recently told the Reuters news agency:
"There should be more agnostics focusing on the fact we are in a bad part of the cycle for crypto here — the corrections could be epic. Make sure you can survive winter."
