Bitcoin could reach $100,000 sooner than you think. With weak hands selling off and smart money accumulating coins during this phase, history is just repeating itself.
Bitcoin could reach $100,000 sooner than you think. With weak hands selling off and smart money accumulating coins during this phase, history is just repeating itself.
Bitcoin price prediction will be done in this article using technical indicators and TA tools. With high and low time-frame chart analysis, combined with some metrics, we will make it easier for you to understand how to view the market at this point. Let's get to the point and find the next move of BTC using different time frames.
Those in a rush may jump to the summary section.
BTC/USDT in the Weekly Time Frame
It took Bitcoin again about three years to breach the previous macrocycle top. Shortly after, a new all-time-high was printed. Given the state of the market and all the other (on-chain) information available, the all-time-high right now doesn’t seem like a macro top, but some sort of a pre-top. The parabolic trendline is just a rough path, which is not meant to be an absolute, but just some sort of guidance.
The percentage shown next to the current Bitcoin price is highly speculative of course. If you just take about half the value of the previous ATH, you can estimate the value of the new all time high. These numbers are used for estimation only as no one can absolutely know the future, so take them with a grain of salt.
Bitcoin in the Daily Time Frame
This recent dump caused the price to retest the previous range high. The market structure turned in the favour of the bears in the beginning of September. However, bulls should be fine as long as Bitcoin is trading above the range high. If it falls back inside the range, the bears will get in control and the long-awaited Q4 bull run will not begin, but so far that is not the case.
A key level to reclaim for the bulls is the $47-49K supply zone. Getting above there also means a higher high (HH) will be printed that will turn the structure in favour of the bulls again.
The funding rate marked on the chart is quite illustrative. Although this is the Bitmex funding, other exchanges’ fundings have been flat/negative for months as well. It tells you that average market participants aren’t too bullish right now. This is in fact really bullish, as the majority is most often on the wrong side of the trade.
Smart money, however, has used this whole range since May to re-accumulate. The coming on-chain metrics will show you why that is the case, and also why that is really bullish.
On-Chain Metrics Confirm a Bullish Bias
Let’s have a look at certain models, metrics, and the behaviour of whales, the more experienced investors, and the newcomers. Is anybody indeed still stacking sats?
Big boys (holding 10 BTC or more) did distribute their coins during the uptrend, when BTC went above its previous ATH.
They are stacking sats again, ever since the drop in May.
The same pattern can be observed when you look at the investors who hodl 1 BTC or more. A market bottom was quite often a bottom for their distribution too. Ever since June, they have been accumulating Bitcoin.
This chart shows you the number of addresses with a Bitcoin balance above 0.1 BTC. These are, partially, owned by younger, less experienced market participants. As you can see, they didn’t really act before but during the drop. Panic selling, most probably!
But they are also accumulating again from the last few months. Keep in mind the two previous charts are also reflected within the current one.
Ever since the COVID drop in March 2020, the volume of BTC on exchanges has been coming down.
The drop in May caused an uptick. A part of that was because of people capitulating and selling their coins on exchanges.
This chart also confirms the statement that Smart Money is still in accumulation mode, rather than distribution. These prices are bargains for them and they take advantage of that while they still can.
As soon as BTC starts its uptrend again, the distribution process will begin as well, but right now that's not the case. At the time, demand is picking up because of retail participants coming back to the market again. Unfortunately, small traders will only buy Bitcoin when it is trading higher, while the smart money will get to the distribution phase.
A massive negative change in the balance sheets of exchanges has marked bottoms before. March 2020 was a massive negative change, which also was a bottom. During September - November 2020, a similar situation presented itself. Look at the massive markup in price in the months after. We are witnessing the same situation from July till today. Will this time be different or is the bottom indeed?
More confirmation for the fact that there is still a massive accumulation going on is to be found when you look at the metrics. HODL wave is a phenomenon where young coins turn into older ones just by not being moved for a certain time. The higher the percentage of older coins, the more these coins have been HODL-ed.
Confirmation: distribution of older coins during the Q1-Q2 uptrend and accumulation from mid-May till now - a very bullish sign indeed!.
Here you see the same HODL chart, but with younger coins. The 6-12M are still visible, to let you see the transmission from sub 6M coins (the coins that haven’t been moved for less than six months) to the older ones.
These charts clearly state that big guns are still in accumulation mode and the recent drops in September haven’t changed anything.
Let’s look at another important market participant: the miners. The hash rate is still recovering since the China ban which is a bullish hint. A whole lot of miners had to shut down initially because of the restrictions imposed by the Chinese government. However, they acted quickly and the hash rate shows many of them started mining again.
A simple indicator that underlines the fact that retail is still in disbelief or simply not presented at its fullest in the market right now is Google Trends.
The search queries related to ‘Bitcoin’ were quite popular during the $20-65K bull run. However, Bitcoin is not that interesting according to Google Trends now.
Summarizing Everything for the People in a Rush
- Re-accumulation from strong hands/experienced investors since May
- Available supply is running dry
- Miners are stacking
- Retail demand: small upticks, but most of it has blown away during the month of May
In the end, smart money wins and a big bunch of retail investors loses the race. The market always works in this manner.
Retail investors clearly lost the first round while the smart money is still in the accumulation zone, causing a supply shock.
Retail investors will come back during an uptrend when supply will run short, a move that will most probably cause the Bitcoin price to surge.
These are, of course, only the interpretations of the writer, keep these things in mind. Moreover, always do your own research and check all these things before making an investment decision.
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