Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX and now Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, has adjusted his outlook on the cryptocurrency market, predicting a peak in March 2025.
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX and now Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, has adjusted his outlook on the cryptocurrency market, predicting a peak in March 2025. Hayes had initially speculated that the market would experience a significant downturn, or a “Trump dump,” once Donald Trump’s administration took office. He anticipated that investors would soon realize that the new president’s pro-crypto promises, including plans to establish a Bitcoin reserve and create a crypto-friendly environment, could be difficult to implement in the short term.
However, Hayes now believes that the expected “Trump dump” has already occurred. He believes the market correction likely took place between mid-December and the end of the year. Despite this, Hayes suggests that ongoing liquidity in the U.S. economy will continue to push the market upwards. Bitcoin's price has already increased by 5.5% in early January, and its market capitalization has surged over 10% to reach $2 trillion.
The driving factor behind Hayes’ revised prediction is the influx of dollar liquidity expected in the first quarter of 2025. He estimates that the U.S. Treasury’s spending and a decline in the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility could inject up to $612 billion into the financial system by the end of March. This liquidity could fuel further bullish momentum in the crypto market, offsetting the potential disappointment surrounding Trump’s crypto policies.
Hayes believes that Bitcoin and other crypto assets will continue to perform well in the short term. He advises investors at his family office, Maelstrom, to take on more risk, recommending that they adopt a “degen” approach and invest in decentralized science (DeSci) tokens. Hayes disclosed that Maelstrom has already acquired tokens such as BIO, VITA, and NEURON.
Although Hayes remains positive about the near-term outlook for the crypto market, he warns that potential risks remain for the rest of 2025. These include debt ceiling negotiations, tax deadlines, and possible monetary policy changes by the Bank of Japan or China. However, Hayes maintains that the favorable liquidity environment will continue to drive the market upward through March 2025.
Looking ahead, experts predict that Bitcoin could reach values between $150,000 and $250,000 later in the year. Hayes encourages risk-takers to be bold in their investment decisions while keeping an eye on market dynamics as the year unfolds.
This article contains links to third-party websites or other content for information purposes only (“Third-Party Sites”). The Third-Party Sites are not under the control of CoinMarketCap, and CoinMarketCap is not responsible for the content of any Third-Party Site, including without limitation any link contained in a Third-Party Site, or any changes or updates to a Third-Party Site. CoinMarketCap is providing these links to you only as a convenience, and the inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, approval or recommendation by CoinMarketCap of the site or any association with its operators.
This article is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is important to do your own research and analysis before making any material decisions related to any of the products or services described. This article is not intended as, and shall not be construed as, financial advice.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s [company’s] own and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinMarketCap.
